How much of ukraine does russia control

Ukraine war MAPPED: How much of Ukraine does Russia control?

RUSSIA is nearly five months deep into its «special military operation» that has seen soldiers pillage and occupy Ukrainian territory while claiming to liberate local populations. How much of Ukraine does Russia control?

Ukrainian air defence system shoot down Russian missiles

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Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February, marshalling thousands of soldiers over Russia’s shared border with the country. Vast tracts of the country now lie smouldering from the months-long assault, and Russia still has its sights set on occupying more land. Some areas may, under directives from puppet governments, become Russian territory.

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How much of Ukraine does Russia control?

Russian forces have spilt over the Ukrainian border in their thousands, accompanied by artillery that has reduced many parts of the country to rubble.

The initial areas targeted by Putin include those already allied to his government, namely those in Luhansk and Donetsk.

The former region became the first to fall in the country’s campaign to control Ukraine’s southern and eastern portions.

Ukraine war MAPPED: How much of Ukraine does Russia control? (Image: GETTY)

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Russia took control over the eastern city of Lysychansk last week, consolidating its hold of Luhansk.

He declared victory on Monday evening during a televised meeting with defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who told him troops had completed the «operation».

The completed military objective means Russia can continue to move west, as intelligence suggests it will now turn to Donetsk.

The UK Ministry of Defence has warned the country will «almost certainly» switch its focus to «capturing [the region of] Donetsk».

Ukraine war MAPPED: Russia controls significant portions of southern and eastern Ukraine (Image: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)

Roughly half of Donetsk is occupied by Russian troops, with only northern portions currently free.

That could soon change as troops residing over a regional border above Donetsk in Izyum shift southwards.

General staffers with the defending country believe Russia will next target Siversk, Fedorivka and Bakhmut, three populous areas in Donetsk.

Where troops can’t reach, shelling may, as Russians have also targeted Sloviansk and Kramatorsk deeper within the territory.

Ukraine war MAPPED: Russia vs Ukraine military capabilities (Image: EXPRESS)

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Putin’s existing southern presence is backed by an extensive network of occupied territories in and around the coast.

Tactically significant areas around the Black Sea, including the port city of Mariupol and Melitopol and Kherson further west, fell earlier during Russia’s campaign.

Ukrainian troops struggled to fend off Russian forces supplied via Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Ukraine is not defenceless as the prospect of another onslaught looms, because the country’s military remains very much in play.

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While troops withdrew from Lysychansk on Sunday, risking «encirclement», they have wrought significant losses on Russia.

According to the MoD, the country has lost a significant supply of middle and junior-ranking officers primarily responsible for directing the conflict on the front.

With Russian weaponry also destroyed, the country is now functioning with slimmer ranks of demoralised «Frankenstein forces».

Ukrainian troops will now focus on Kharkiv and its surrounding regions, where they have built a bulwark of defence backed by territory recaptured from Russia.

How much of Ukraine does Russia hold?

While Moscow failed in those sweeping objectives, Russian forces have seized a wide swath of southern Ukraine and redeployed soldiers, vehicles and heavy weapons with the aim of pushing deeper into eastern Ukraine, expanding the territory it has controlled through proxy forces since 2014.

The Ukrainian and Russian armies are now in a grueling war of attrition, often fighting fiercely over small areas. But if Russia can hold the territory it occupies on land and maintain its dominion at sea, that could give it the capacity to strangle the Ukrainian economy and provide either leverage in any negotiated settlement or a staging ground for broader assaults across the country.

Here is a look at where things stand.

The South

Russia made its swiftest and largest gains in the first weeks of the war in the south, sweeping north out of Crimea — which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — and taking over the city of Kherson and much of the surrounding region. Spread out over some 11,000 square miles, the region is a little smaller than Maryland and Delaware combined.

The Kherson region had a prewar population of more than one million people, although Ukrainian officials say more than half of them have fled. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper river, it is home to a major port connected to the Black Sea. Moscow has steadily taken steps to tear away at its Ukrainian identity by introducing Russian currency, and by appointing and tightly controlling proxy local leaders.

But Russian control of the territory is not complete. The Ukrainians have been staging sporadic counterattacks, trying to claw back towns and villages.

The Southeast

After taking Kherson, Russian forces moved to seize territory to the east in the southeastern province of Zaporizka, home to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. The Russians are now estimated to control about 70 percent of the province.

Our Coverage of the Russia-Ukraine War

While the Ukrainian government remains in control of the city of Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces control Berdiansk, a critical port along the Sea of Azov; Melitopol, the region’s second largest city; and Enerhodar and its nuclear plant.

The province had 1.6 million people before the war; it is hard to estimate how many have stayed behind. The mayor of Melitopol said on Monday that about 60 percent of the city’s residents had fled.

Mariupol

On the edge of the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, this once thriving port city is now destroyed. Ukrainian officials estimate that 20,000 civilians have been killed in the monthslong Russian siege, and three-fourths of the population have fled. The United Nations says that thousands of civilians have been killed there. What is left of the city is largely under Russian control. The last Ukrainian soldiers are trapped in a sprawling steel mill near the port.

Claiming the city has allowed Russia to complete a coveted link by land from Crimea to the eastern region of Donetsk, which is controlled by their proxy forces, and to Russia itself.

The Black Sea

While Russia failed in its advance on the Black Sea port city of Odesa, the Russian Navy controls the Black Sea itself and has effectively blockaded Ukraine, which the United Nations and other international observers have said is fueling a global food crisis.

The Ukrainians and Russians have been engaged in a fierce battle over a spit of land in the Black Sea called Snake Island, about 80 miles off the coast from Odesa. Before the war, Ukrainian control of the island was a key to extending Ukraine’s claims on the sea.

While Russia has never been able to establish control in the skies over Ukraine, it has near-total superiority at sea.

How much of Ukraine does Russia control? Map shows where Putin’s troops have taken since launching invasion

Moscow has claimed it will radically scale back its military activity

Russia announced on Wednesday that it would significantly scale back military operations near Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, as outlines of a possible deal to end the war came into view at the latest round of talks.

Ukraine’s delegation at the conference, held in Istanbul, Turkey, laid out a framework under which the country would declare itself neutral and its security would be guaranteed by an array of other nations.

Russia’s claims have been met with scepticism by Ukrainian military officials, who on Wednesday portrayed the potential retreat as a pretext for Russian troops regrouping and preparing for a renewed offensive.

Shelling was reported around Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv on Tuesday night, with civilian infrastructure targeted, including a library and shopping centre, according to Ukrainian authorities.

Questions remain about whether Russian words will be matched by deeds.

How much of Ukraine does Russia control?

Russian troops made early gains in the south, as they sought to create of a land corridor between Crimea, previously annexed in 2014, and areas held by Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Gaining control of Mariupol is central to this strategy, which has been under siege since the start of March, encircled by Russian forces, and is likely to fall within days.

Elsewhere, Russian forces have lost ground around the capital Kyiv in recent days and appear to be scaling back their efforts to encircle the city.

Is Russia retreating?

Moscow has claimed it will radically scale back its military activity in Kyiv and refocus its efforts in the east of Ukraine during negotiations in Istanbul.

Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin said Moscow has decided to “fundamentally… cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” to “increase mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations”.

He did not immediately spell out what that would mean in practical terms, as the announcement was met with scepticism from the US and other nations.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia cannot be trusted. Although the signals from the talks are “positive,” they ”can’t silence explosions of Russian shells,” he said.

As mentioned, shelling has recently been reported around Kyiv and the Chernihiv, seemingly contradicting Fomin’s remarks.

The mayor of Chernihiv, Vladyslav Atroshenko, said the city us under “colossal attack” and told CNN, “they actually have increased the intensity of strikes.”

Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said Moscow was shifting some forces from northern Ukraine to the east, where it was trying to encircle the main Ukrainian force there.

What are each side’s losses?

There is a consensus that Vladimir Putin envisioned the invasion would be over quickly and did not anticipate the extent of Ukrainian resistance, meaning troops went in underprepared for weeks on the front line.

Nato has estimated the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine since the invasion began to be between 7,000 and 15,000.

A pro-Kremlin website, Komsomolskaya Pravda, reported that almost 10,000 soldiers had died on 21 March, nearly four weeks into the invasion. The article was subsequently deleted.

Put in context, Russia acknowledges that in nearly a decade of fighting in Chechnya, it lost 11,000 troops.

On 13 March, Ukraine authorities announced that at least 1,300 of its soldiers had been killed so far in the conflict.

Russia’s defence ministry, on 2 March, claimed that more than 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and paramilitary fighter, wounding around 3,700.

Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said on 2 March that more than 2,000 civilians have died but has not released any figures since.

The UN’s human rights office announced on 19 March that 847 civilians had died in Ukraine since 24 February, including 155 men, 119 women, 21 boys and seven girls.

However, in a statement the human rights office said it believes that the actual figures are “considerably higher”.

Russia-Ukraine war by the numbers: Live Tracker

As the Russian offensive enters its 172nd day, we track where battles are taking place and the human cost of war.

As the Russian offensive enters its 172nd day, we track where the fighting is happening and how we got here.

Read on for an overview of the situation in infographics and maps.

Who controls what in Ukraine?

According to the United Kingdom’s defence ministry, blasts at the Russian-operated military airfield in the annexed Crimean Peninsula led to the loss of eight Russian combat jets. The Ukrainian military hit a Russian depot near a key bridge, giving them access to attack nearly all of Moscow’s supply lines in the occupied region.

Who controls what in the Donbas region?

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut, Sloviansk, Siversk and Kharkiv city. A US-made AN/MPQ-64 radar system was destroyed in the Donetsk region, says Russia’s defence ministry.

Where are people fleeing to?

According to the UN refugee agency UNHCR, there have been more than 10.6 million border crossings out of Ukraine since the Russian invasion.

Many have sought refuge in neighbouring states.

The latest – and still growing – count had 5,269,285 border crossings into Poland, 998,516 Romania, 1,968,127 Russia, 1,151,781 Hungary, 565,543 Moldova, 668,195 Slovakia, and 16,685 into Belarus.

At least 6,377,256 refugees from Ukraine have been recorded fleeing across Europe, according to various sources.

Most of the arrivals have been women and children. All men aged between 18 and 60 have been asked to remain in Ukraine to fight.

Ukraine and Russia explained in ten maps and charts

Below are ten infographics that break down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis.

1. Conflict at a glance

(Al Jazeera)

2. History of the USSR

Russia and Ukraine were part of the 15 Soviet republics that made up the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine declared independence on August 24. The map below shows when each of these countries declared independence.

(Al Jazeera)

3. Political leadership

After independence, Ukraine moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and forge increasingly close ties with the West.

Over the past 30 years, Ukraine has been led by seven presidents. The country has had a rocky path towards democracy with two revolutions, first in 2005 and then in 2014. Both times, protesters rejected Russia’s supremacy and sought a path to join the European Union and NATO.

By comparison, Russia has been led by three presidents, with Putin having been in office for 17 years. In 2021, Putin, the former agent of the Soviet Union’s KGB security services, signed a law that essentially enables him to stay in power until 2036.

Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russians and Ukrainians belong to “one people” and are part of the historical “Russian civilisation” that also includes neighbouring Belarus. Ukrainians reject his claims.

(Al Jazeera)

4. How big are Ukraine and Russia?

Ukraine has an estimated population of 44 million – the seventh-largest in Europe. The country comprises 24 regions, known as oblasts. The country’s population has declined since the 1990s with fertility rates among the lowest in the world. As of 2020, Ukraine’s fertility rate was just 1.2. For context, in order for a population to remain stable, an overall total fertility rate of 2.1 is required.

Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe, after Russia. At 603,550sq km (233,031sq miles), Ukraine is a bit smaller than the US state of Texas, about three times smaller than India, half the size of South Africa and about two and a half times the size of the United Kingdom.

(Al Jazeera)

5. NATO in Europe

NATO is the world’s most powerful military alliance. Comprising 30 nations, its primary role is to protect its member states by political and military means.

Russia opposes NATO bases near its borders and has asked for written guarantees that NATO will not expand eastwards. One of the Kremlin’s central demands is that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO – a move it considers a red line. The United States has refused to concede to this demand.

Read more about NATO history and expansion here.

(Al Jazeera)

6. Military head to head

Russia has one of the most powerful militaries in the world and ranks among the top five defence spenders.

Since tensions began, NATO allies, fearful of a potential ground invasion by Russia, have stepped up support for Kyiv by sending military equipment to Ukraine.

Read more about the military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine here.

(Al Jazeera)

7. Oil and gas resources

Russia and Ukraine are both rich in oil and gas. Russia has the world’s highest proven gas reserves at 48,938 billion cubic metres. More than 70 percent of the country’s gas reserves are held by Gazprom, a state-owned energy giant.

Russia also has some of the largest proven oil reserves, at 80 billion barrels, or 5 percent of the world’s total.

Ukraine, too, has a sizeable reserve of oil and gas at 395 million barrels and 349 billion cubic metres, respectively. The country sits at the crossroads between the West and Russia, and plays a key role in delivering Russian gas to European markets.

Read more about the world’s oil and gas pipelines here.

(Al Jazeera)

8. Russia and Ukraine’s main exports

Read more about Russia, Ukraine and the global wheat supply here.

(Al Jazeera)

9. Which countries rely most on Russian oil?

In 2019, the world’s top exporters of crude oil were Saudi Arabia ($145bn), Russia ($123bn), Iraq ($73.8bn), Canada ($67.8bn), and the US ($61.9bn).

At least 48 countries imported Russian crude oil in 2019. The countries that rely most on Russian oil include: Belarus, Cuba, Curacao, Kazakhstan, Latvia – each importing more than 99 percent of their crude oil from Russia.

The graphic below shows how much of each country’s total crude oil imports come from Russia.

Read more about what a ban on Russian oil means here.

(Al Jazeera)

10. Which countries buy the most Russian weapons?

Read more about Russian weapons here.

(Al Jazeera)

Alexander Nepogodin: What does the future hold for the regions of Ukraine now controlled by Russia?

Restoring peacetime life to the territories under Russia’s control is vital as the what’s known as the «special military operation» proceeds in Ukraine. Currently, these are the Kherson Region, most of the Zaporozhye province, and a large part of the area around Kharkov.

Moscow has begun restoring the economic and social infrastructure, as well as improving the living conditions in the area’s concerned. Military-civil administrations have already been established, and the major cities often receive visits from high-ranking Russian officials. An opinion widely held in Russia is that these lands will remain with the country, and there is no turning back now.

RT examines the attempt to restore peace in the Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions, bearing in mind the strategic importance of the lands in southern Ukraine for Russia, and what the future holds for them.

Uncertain future

The discussion of plans to make the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions part of Russia pushes the limits of the military operation in Ukraine. The official approach remains the same though: Ukraine should be «denazified» and its military potential blunted, which requires securing control over certain territories. Judging by the political activity of Russian-appointed officials in these areas, the military operation will go well beyond the borders of the Donbass, depending on the situation on the frontline.

Andrey Klishas, the chair of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building, has sent an important signal, stating that not only Donbass residents, but all Ukrainian citizens, have the right to choose their destiny.

Kirill Stremousov, the deputy chair of the Kherson Region military-civil administration, has told Reuters that the fighting could affect the timing of Kherson’s formal plan to join Russia, and a decision is likely “towards next year.” He didn’t rule out the possibility of holding a referendum. In early May, however, he insisted there would be “no referendums,” accusing Ukraine of “spreading fakes” about Russian plans to vote on the establishment of a Kherson People’s Republic.

“Later, we will announce our plans for voting or referendums if any, but this is not going to happen any time soon since our primary goal is to restore order in Kherson Region,” Stremousov said. “It won’t happen by autumn,” he added, when asked about a timetable for possibly joining Russia.

Statements by Vladimir Rogov from the Zaporozhye Region military-civil administration follow the same lines. According to him, Zaporozhye will not return to Ukraine’s control. “There is no question we have to become part of Russia as its full-fledged constituent entity. We do not want any ‘grey areas’, any Zaporozhye People’s Republic. We want to be part of Russia. As we have always been for centuries.”

The territories under Moscow’s control have decided not to wait for the hostilities to end and have begun their integration into Russia’s economy. High-ranking state officials regularly pay visits, talking about restoring peacetime life and integrating the territory into the ‘mainland’. For the Donbass, it took many years, but now every month counts. The local authorities are planning to transition to Russian law, establish ruble-based financial and pension systems, and set up procedures for issuing documents by the end of the year. This would certainly help in restoring the region and restarting its economy.

Meanwhile, Russia has not reached a final decision on integration. If the decision is made, Moscow will face obstacles in implementing it, ranging from political to legal. Experts are discussing possible scenarios: The establishment of a people’s republic that would hold a referendum on acceding to Russia; merging with the Donetsk People’s Republic, which would later integrate into Russia; and also are searching for other legal grounds that would require changes to existing laws.

Naturally, a lot will depend on the situation on the battlefield and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The statements made by the military-civil administrations and Russian officials should signal to the residents of Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions that they will not return to Ukraine. Therefore, they need to start working with the pro-Russian authorities.

Many residents avoid working with the military-civil administrations – according to Ukrainian law, it is treason, and could lead to 15 years in prison. A witch hunt has already been launched in other parts of Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) routinely breaks into the homes of Ukrainians who support the Russian offensive. People suspected of being pro-Moscow are detained and harshly interrogated. Pro-Russian Ukrainians are often labeled ‘collaborators’ and bullied on social media. The UN has recognized that the problem exists; the organization reported cases of kidnapping in Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson Regions.

However, the most important document that signals Russia’s long-term goals regarding these territories is the order of President Putin providing fast-track citizenship for residents of Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions. Distributing Russian passports to the people in these territories is an important statement that inspires confidence in locals that these regions will be part of Russia in the future.

Humanitarian issue

People in Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions are slowly returning to normal life – not without difficulty, of course, but they are getting used to the new reality, and making plans for the future. In this short period of time, people have gained a sense of stability.

The authorities are establishing a new government. Local police are recruiting new officers, some of them former Ukrainian officials. The head of the Kherson police department is Vladimir Lipandin; in the early 2010s, he headed up the Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Cherkassy Region. In 2014, he dealt with Euromaidan rioters in Cherkassy, and ended up on the wanted list after the coup succeeded.

Former officials are getting involved at higher levels as well. Vladimir Saldo, the appointed head of the Kherson Region military-civil administration, has been elected mayor of Kherson three times in the past (2002-12), and is also a former MP from the Party of Regions, which held power in Kiev before the Western-backed Maidan.

The new authorities are prioritizing the resumption of normal life, forming structures of governance, building up aspects of the social and economic spheres, and creating jobs. They are working hard on this. A bi-currency (ruble and hryvna) zone was officially established there on May 23. The plan is to switch to the ruble as the only currency in the near future.

Residents of the Kherson Region already receive salaries, pensions, and other payments in rubles, while Russian internet providers, TV channels, and radio stations are also available. Russian banks are expected to arrive soon. At present, the only institution operating in the region is the International Settlements Bank, registered in partly-recognized South Ossetia. Zaporozhye and Kherson have also begun using the Russian telephone prefix (+7), and a new cellphone service provider has started working.

“There is a problem with paying for cell services. People can’t call their relatives. The Ukrainian economy basically no longer exists there. Payment terminals are not working, the Ukrainian authorities disconnected these regions from all communications, no pensions will be paid. They did the same thing with the Donbass back in the day. That was their punishment. The same is happening here. They disconnected all ATMs and terminals. That’s why people are buying new SIM cards that require identification,” State Duma MP Oleg Matveichev explains.

However, although Ukraine has unilaterally severed ties with the region, leading to short-term shortages and price increases, Russian operators are now filling the space – and not only mobile carriers and banks, but also stores, pharmacy chains, and other distributors of consumer goods. High prices remain the biggest problem. But switching to the ruble should help bring them down to at least the same level as in Crimea and help the region’s economic recovery in general. For the time being, a lot depends on volunteers with grassroots fundraisers.

Another problem that keeps coming up in the region is the lack of normally functioning checkpoints between the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions and Crimea. Hundreds of trucks are lined up at the border, preventing the transportation and sale of huge amounts of agricultural products to Russia. Calls have been made for this problem to be solved as quickly as possible so goods can flow unobstructed. Among other things, work has begun to restore the railway connection between Crimea and Russia through the two regions.

While it seems premature to estimate the costs involved in rebuilding the territories now under Russian control, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, who has visited the Kherson Region, has already announced the creation of a special task force to rebuild it. “We will rebuild all the roads and housing that have been destroyed. Another package of measures will aim to restore the economy. We have prepared a number of initiatives to get the economy and the financial system up and running as quickly as possible,” he said.

Prized lands

The Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions are strategically important to Russia for many reasons. First, they are part of the land corridor between Crimea and Rostov. Second, the area encompassing the Donbass and southern Ukraine, which was historically called Novorossiya, is, unlike Crimea, an industrial and agricultural powerhouse. In other words, these territories will not be a burden for Russia. In the long run, if Moscow integrates them regions, they will become important contributors to the country’s economy, generating income and development opportunities.

While visiting the region, Khusnullin noted that there has not been much destruction and that the Russian authorities plan to re-launch factories and restore roads as quickly as possible, as well as developing agricultural production. “The Kherson region has great prospects, it will take a worthy place in the Russian family,” he said.

Indeed, regions now occupied by the Russian Armed Forces previously produced one-third of Ukraine’s wheat. In addition to its own consumption, Ukraine covered 10% of world exports. Together with the shares of Russia and Kazakhstan, it made up one-third of the global total. In the context of an impending global food crisis, the significance of southeastern Ukraine is hard to overestimate.

However, grain is not the most important agricultural output of southeastern Ukraine. The Kherson Region grew most of Ukraine’s vegetables and melons, while Zaporozhye is a land of cherry horticulture. In terms of numbers, Kherson produced more vegetables than any other part of the country – 14% of the total harvest in Ukraine. Its greatest contribution was tomato, cucumber, and onion production. Every third tomato grown in the country came from Kherson, and the share of local cucumbers and onions in the total mix of Ukrainian produce was 12% each.

Admittedly, there are difficulties. Vegetable farms require fertilizers, seeds, and fuel, as well as people, at a time when many specialists are leaving the region. However, if the statements by the Kherson Region military-civil administration are to be believed, 95% of the region’s arable land has been cultivated and seeded, and the coming season promises a very high yield. Naturally, local farmers will want to expand their presence on major markets, including by supplying to the central regions of Russia.

Losing Kherson and Zaporozhye would deal a huge blow to Ukraine’s economy. Many analytical agencies forecast a serious economic meltdown for the country that no amount of financial aid could contain. Morgan Stanley Global Financial Services expects the country’s GDP to drop at least 39% in 2022. If Ukraine loses access to the Black Sea, GDP is predicted to shrink by as much as 60%. If the country only loses Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, GDP would still plunge 22%.

It does look like Ukraine stands to lose not only arable lands and industrial assets, but also some of its critical infrastructure facilities, such as Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye. The Zaporozhye NPP generates about 40 GWh annually, which accounts for half of the total energy produced by Ukraine’s entire NPP network, and 20% of the country’s total annual energy production.

Which is exactly why the Zaporozhye NPP could be considered by Russia a key to recovery in areas with access to the Azov Sea, especially since, now that Mariupol has been secured by the Russian Army and the DPR militia, the sea is under Russia’s full control. The port recovery project is fully underway now. Mariupol has already received its first ship, while the port in Skadovsk is undergoing reconstruction and is expected to be able to start shipping grain in just a few months.

The strategic importance of Kherson is also seen in the fact that it is a major supplier of fresh water to Crimea via the North Crimean Canal. Although the peninsula has been able to improve its own water supply in recent years, gaining access to the canal is a major factor in its development. The head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, reported recently that the water supply via the North Crimean Canal has been restored, and he considers it to be a permanent solution.

However, one of the most important reasons for Moscow to claim these territories is the large Russian-speaking population with pro-Russia views, which did not support the Euromaidan uprising in 2014. Russia sees its mission as integrating this population into its multinational state, where they would be free from any restrictions of the kind Ukraine has imposed on their language and culture. In recent statements, Stremousov said Russian will become an official language of the region, like Ukrainian.

“Russian will be the language of everyday communication, state affairs and official documents. There will be no restrictions on the Ukrainian language whatsoever,” he said, emphasizing that no one’s language freedoms will be taken away. The administration is planning to start a dialogue with the local community of Crimean Tatars to discuss the possibility of making the Crimean Tatar language the third official language in the region.

It seems at the moment that the areas that are critical in supporting Crimea fall outside the scope of Russia’s agenda for talks with Ukraine. The progress of the military offensive will determine how the situation unfolds, but it seems that the chances for a peace settlement are dwindling, since Ukraine’s position on Kherson and Zaporozhye is unwavering, and Kiev says it’s only interested in resuming peace talks based on the status quo that existed prior to February 24.

This means that the destiny of the Russian-controlled territories in the southeast will be defined by the goals of the military operation. Right now, it seems as though their integration with Russia is inevitable. Both the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions play a key role in ensuring Crimea’s safety and maintaining Russia’s connection to Donbass. Currently, however, recovery in these territories takes precedence over political issues, including potential integration with Russia.

By Alexander Nepogodin, аn Odessa-born political journalist, expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union.